Electric Vehicle Batteries, Metals & Manufacturing till 2030- Post-Covid

Opportunities during and beyond the slowdown
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The electric vehicle (EV) battery industry presents an opportunity in which “you either go big or you go home”, says Peter Carlsson, CEO of Northvolt.

Going big, however, could present challenges at multiple levels, not only with raw material feeds that already present issues in more than a few areas. This is over and above the challenges presented by the slowdown generated by the Coronavirus pandemic.

Our report studies short and long term outlook of the BEV battery industry in the context of the business climate manufacturers and material suppliers are operating in. Studies we undertook using statistical tools to arrive at our findings included:

  • EV Battery Survey: Who Are The EV Battery Market Leaders of Tomorrow
  • BEV Regulation and Opportunity Index (Policies of 12 countries ranked)
  • Battery Manufacturers Business Growth Map (BATMAN) – 26 companies
  • Battery Material Suppliers Business Growth Map (BATMAT) – 34 companies
  • BEV Battery Supply Chain Outlook
  • BEV Battery Technology Outlook

 

The BEV Battery Forecast in the report is sliced by:

  • Geographies – Global and Regional (2019-2030)
    • North America (US and Canada)
    • Europe (Germany, France, UK, Norway, Netherlands and Spain)
    • Asia (China, Japan, South Korea and Spain)
  • BEV sales by Battery Chemistry – 2019-2025
    • Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) — NMC
    • Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide (LiNiCoAlO2) — NCA
    • Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4) – LFP
    • Lithium Manganese Oxide (LiMn2O4) – LMO
    • Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide- Lithium Manganese Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2- LiMn2O4) – NMC-LMO
  • BEV sales by Battery Size – 2019-2025
    • 5-25 kWh
    • 25-50 kWh
    • 50-75 kWh
    • 75-100 kWh
    • > or = 100 kWh
  • BEV Battery Market Projections till 2030
    • Up to 1 billion
    • US$ 1-3 billion
    • US$ 3-40 billion
  • Battery material production estimates
    • Lithium and Cobalt
  • BEV sales – pre and post-Covid

 

Number of pages: 150

Author: Edmund Chew & Moushumi Mohanty

Published: July 2020

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Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Plug-in Battery Electric Vehicle Leaders
1.1 Why This Report
1.2 Market Drivers’ Index
1.3 Economics of Batteries
1.4 Change in Structure of the Powertrain Value Chain
1.5 Microsofts & Intels of Automotive Industry
1.6 Mapping Risk of Battery Supply Chain
1.6.1 BATMAN & BATMAT
1.7 New Materials & Future Technologies
1.8 Methodology
1.8.1 e-mobilityinsight Survey 2019
1.8.2 Interviews
1.8.3 Ranking of drivers
1.8.4 Secondary research
1.8.5 Component mapping
1.8.6 Inferences, Forecasts and insights

Chapter 2 EV Regulation & Opportunity Index
2.1 Government Stimulus Post-Covid 19
2.2 Electric Vehicle Regulation & Opportunity Index: Methodology
2.3 China: EV Market Leader
2.3.1 Industry Support
2.3.2 OEM Investments Into Batteries
2.3.3 Opportunities for China
2.4 India: Improving Air Quality
2.4.1 Chinese Investments Into India
2.4.2 Opportunities for India
2.5 Japan: Early Start
2.5.1 Opportunities for Japan
2.6 South Korea: Hydrogen Ambitions
2.6.1 Opportunities for South Korea
2.7 Norway: Impact of Incentives
2.7.1 Opportunities for Norway
2.8 The Netherlands: PHEV Leader Moving Towards EV Leadership
2.8.1 Opportunities for the Netherlands
2.9 Germany: Punishing Fossil Fuels
2.9.1 Opportunities for Germany
2.10 France: Tax ICE Vehicle Owners
2.10.1 Opportunities for France
2.11 UK: Road to Zero
2.11.1 Opportunities for UK
2.12 US: Lower Emission Targets
2.13 Learnings From Policy Analysis

Chapter 3 EV Battery Industry Economics & Investment
3.1 Economic Issues in Battery Production
3.2 Strategies of EV Assemblers
3.2.1 Case Study of Vehicle Maker Strategy: BMW
3.3 Strategies of Battery Manufacturers
3.4 Managing Relations with Material Suppliers
3.5 Financing, Earnings & Scale
3.6 Mergers, JVs, Alliances & Other Partnerships
3.7 How Things Could Play Out

Chapter 4 Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain – Mapping Risk
4.1 Supply Chain Issues with Electrification: e-mobilityinsight Survey
4.1.1 In the long term…
4.1.2 Anatomy of Delays in Battery Material Supply
4.2 High Demand & Low Price Paradox
4.3 Preserving Cash
4.4 Will the Future Battery Cathode Have Lithium Carbonate or Hydroxide?
4.5 Where Will Future Batteries Source Lithium From – Australia or South America?
4.6 How Much Lithium is Actually Required?
4.7 The Unfortunate Case of Cobalt: Sourcing & Supply Issues
4.7.1 Cobalt Risk Mitigation
4.7.2 Cobalt Scrutiny Groups
4.7.3 Production Projects Put on Hold
4.7.4 Cobalt Price
4.8 Graphite
4.9 Nickel
4.10 Mergers & Acquisitions
4.11 The Bottomline on the Battery Supply Chain
4.12 In the short term…

Chapter 5 EV Battery Manufacturers Business Growth Map (BATMAN)
5.1 Methodology
5.2 Definition of Quadrant Titles
5.3 Panasonic: Champion & Challenger Model
5.4 Tesla: Integrated Gigafactories
5.5 CATL: Competitive Pricing
5.6 BYD: Policy Stimulus
5.7 SK Innovation: From Petroleum to Lithium Ion
5.8 Samsung SDI: Large Capex
5.9 LG Chem: Strong Growth
5.10 Disruptive Movements Across Quadrants
5.10.1 GS Yuasa
5.10.2 Toshiba
5.11 Companies That Were Not Mapped
5.11.1 Tianjin Lishen: Going places
5.11.2 Boston-Power: High on Innovation
5.11.3 CALB: Among the Challengers

Companies studied under BATMAN (26)
LG Chem; China BAK; Tianneg Power; Samsung SDI; SK Innovation; A123 Systems; BYD; Johnson Matthey; Toshiba; CATL; GS Yuasa; Electrovaya; Valence; Blue Solutions; Tesla; Beijing Pride Power; Harbin Coslight; Saft Batteries; Hunan Corun; Guoxuan; Flux Power; Chaowei Power; Boston Power; Lishen; CALB; Panasonic

Chapter 6 EV Battery Material Suppliers Business Growth Map (BATMAT)
6.1 Albemarle: Future Output Signed Into Supply Agreements
6.2 SQM: Leveraging Low-cost Production
6.3 Jiangxi Ganfeng: Compelling Growth Story
6.4 Livent: Spin-off From FMC Lithium
6.5 Vale: Nickel Headwinds Offset by Cobalt
6.6 Norilsk Nickel: Upgrading Production Facilities
6.7 Syrah Resources: Growth by acquisition
6.8 Eramet: Nickel & Lithium
6.9 Glencore: Among the Niche Players
6.10 BHP: Nickel Asset Expansions

Companies studied under BATMAT (34)
SQM; FMC Lithium (Livent); Albemarle; Jiangxi Gangfeng Lithium; Tianqi Lithium; Glencore; Sherritt International; China Molybdenum; Fleurette Group; Vale S.A.; Gecamines; Broken Hill Prospecting; Barra Resources; Eramet; Garibaldi; GME Resources; Sama Resources; Clean TeQ Holdings; Wallbridge Mining Company; Norilsk Nickel; BHP; Jinchuan International; Independence Group; First Quantum Minerals; Nickel Asia; Western Areas; SRG; Ceylon Graphite; Nouveau Monde; Talga Resources; Magnis; Imerys; Himadri Speciality Chemical; Syrah Resources

Chapter 7 New EV Battery Technologies: Opportunities & Challenges
7.1 Demand Driver for Battery Chemistry Research
7.2 Investments Into Battery Research
7.3 Expectations From Batteries
7.4 Cathode: Types of Batteries
7.4.1 Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2)
7.4.2 Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide (LiNiCoAlO2)
7.4.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4)
7.4.3.1 Can LFP Replace Lead Acid Starter Batteries?
7.4.4 Lithium Manganese Oxide (LiMn2O4)
7.4.5 Lithium Titanate (Li2TiO3)
7.5 Anode
7.5.1 Silicon & Graphite
7.5.1.1 Shielding Silicon
7.5.2 Lithium Metal
7.6 Electrolyte
7.7 Most Likely Winner in Battery Technology: Solid State
7.8 Post lithium

Chapter 8 Inferences, Forecasts & Insights
8.1 Small Cars
8.2 Battery Technology & Range
8.3 Emission Regulation
8.4 Longer-Term Technology Outlook
8.5 Short to Medium Term BEV Adoption
8.5.1 US
8.5.2 Europe
8.5.3 China
8.5.4 Japan
8.5.5 South Korea
8.5.6 India
8.6 Long Term Outlook
8.7 EV Battery Supply Chain Outlook
8.8 EV Battery Supply Chain: European Battery Manufacturing
8.9 Emission Risk for Battery Material Suppliers
8.10 EV Battery Supply Chain: Price Pressure &Investment Paralysis
8.11 EV Battery & Battery Material Leaders
8.12 Long term Covid Impact on BEVs

Figures & Graphs

Figure 2.1 Global Electric Vehicle Incentive Matrix
Figure 2.2 Farewell Dates for the Internal Combustion Engine
Figure 2.3 Range wise subsidies in China
Figure 2.4 Global EV Industrial Policy
Figure 2.5 Automaker Investments into EV Batteries
Figure 2.6 Battery Manufacturer Investment into EV Batteries
Figure 2.7 Fuel cell vehicle targets (Asia)
Figure 3.1 Announced Automotive Battery Cell Capacity Costs (US$ ’000s/GWh)
Figure 3.2 BEV &Battery Strategies of OEMs
Figure 3.3 Strategic OEM Considerations in Battery Plant Investments
Figure 3.3.1 Emission target (MY 2025)
Figure 3.4 Top 15 OEMs in BEV Sales in 2019
Figure 3.5 Industry Ranking of EV Battery Suppliers with Best Prospects
Figure 3.6 Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturers by Capacity (2019)
Figure 3.7 Positions & Strategies of Battery Cell Manufacturers
Figure 4.1 Battery Raw Material Qualification – Best Case Scenario
Figure 4.2 EV Battery Material Contracts (2018-2020)
Figure 4.3 Historical Lithium Prices (2002-2018)
Figure 4.4 Electric Vehicle Battery Material Supplier Strategies
Figure 4.4.1 High Nickel Cathodes
Figure 4.5 Lithium Mine Supply (tons)
Figure 4.6 Lithium-ion NMC Plant Material Requirement (tons)
Figure 4.7 Estimated demand – Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE)
Figure 4.8 Cobalt Scrutiny Groups
Figure 4.9 Equity Investments by Battery Metal Suppliers
Figure 5.1 18650 Batteries
Figure 5.2 18650 Vs 2170
Figure 7.1 Ion Movement Between Electrodes
Figure 7.2 Share of Battery Chemistry in BEVs (2019)
Figure 7.3 Battery Properties Matrix
Figure 7.4 Atomic Structure of the Anode
Figure 7.5 Flattened Lithium Dendrites
Figure 7.6 Lithium Battery Technology Roadmap
Figure 8.1 BEVs are getting larger and larger
Figure 8.2 Regional BEV Pre and Post-Covid Projections (2019-2025)
Figure 8.3 Global BEV Battery Forecast by Country (kWh)
Figure 8.4 Global BEV Sales Forecast by Battery Chemistry, Regions
Figure 8.4.1 US BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.2 Canada BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.3 Germany BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.4 France BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.5 UK BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.6 Norway BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.7 Netherlands BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.8 Spain BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.9 China BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.10 India BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.11 South Korea BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.4.12 Japan BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Figure 8.5 Global BEV Sales Forecast by Battery Size, Regions
Figure 8.5.1 US BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.2 Canada BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.3 Germany BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.4 France BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.5 UK BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.6 Norway BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.7 Netherlands BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.8 Spain BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.9 China BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.10 India BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.11 South Korea BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.5.12 Japan BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Figure 8.6 Global BEV Battery Market Projection (US$)- 2019-2030
Figure 8.6.1 BEV Battery Market Size Projection (US$3 – 40 billion)- 2019-2030
Figure 8.6.2 BEV Battery Market Size Projection (US$1-3 billion) – 2019-2030
Figure 8.6.3 BEV Battery Market Size Projection (< US$1 billion) – 2019-2030
Figure 8.7 Global BEV Sales Forecast (2019-2030)
Figure 8.8 OEMs with Largest Market Share in China (2019)
Figure 8.9 OEMs with Largest Market Share in Europe (2019)
Figure 8.10 OEMs with Largest Market Share in US (2019)

Graph 1.1 Responses on expected BEV Registrations
Graph 2.1 Which Country is Likely to be the EV Battery Industry Leader?
Graph 2.2 Used EV imports in Norway
Graph 2.3 Electric vehicle sales in US
Graph 2.4 e-mobilityinsight EV Regulation & Opportunity Index
Graph 3.1 Factors Contributing to Cost Reduction in PEV Batteries
Graph 3.2 Announced Automotive Battery Cell Capacity Costs (US$ ’000s/GWh)
Graph 4.1 Shortage of Battery Materials
Graph 4.2 Impact of Spot Market Prices for Materials Till 2024
Graph 4.3 Cobalt Price (2015-2019)
Graph 4.4 Refined Cobalt Production (tons)
Graph 4.5 Graphite production (metric tons/year)
Graph 4.6 Five year nickel price in USD/lb; saved on 3rd April 2020
Graph 5.1 BATMAN (2014)
Graph 5.2 BATMAN (2018)
Graph 6.1 BATMAT (2014)
Graph 6.2 BATMAT (2018)
Graph 7.1 Automaker R&D Expenditure to Sales % (2014-2018)
Graph 7.2 OEM R&D Spend (2014-2018)
Graph 7.3 Share of Battery Component R&D (2015-2018)
Graph 7.4 Share of Battery Function R&D (2015-2018)
Graph 7.5 What is the Battery of the Future?
Graph 8.1 Performance & Standards by Manufacturer (MY 2018)
Graph 8.2 Europe BEV Sales Forecasts Jumped Over Pre-Covid Predictions
Graph 8.3 Global BEV Battery Forecast by Country (kWh)
Graph 8.4 Global BEV Sales Forecast by Battery Chemistry, Regions
Graph 8.4.1 US BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.2 Canada BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.3 Germany BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.4 France BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.5 UK BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.6 Norway BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.7 Netherlands BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.8 Spain BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.9 China BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.10 India BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.11 South Korea BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.4.12 Japan BEV Forecast by Battery Chemistry
Graph 8.5 Global BEV Sales Forecast by Battery Size, Regions
Graph 8.5.1 US BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.2 Canada BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.3 Germany BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.4 France BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.5 UK BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.6 Norway BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.7 Netherlands BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.8 Spain BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.9 China BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.10 India BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.11 South Korea BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.5.12 Japan BEV Battery Forecast by Size
Graph 8.6 Global BEV Battery Market Projection (US$)- 2019-2030
Graph 8.6.1 BEV Battery Market Size Projection (US$3 – 40 billion)- 2019-2030
Graph 8.6.2 BEV Battery Market Size Projection (US$1-3 billion) – 2019-2030
Graph 8.6.3 BEV Battery Market Size Projection (< US$1 billion) – 2019-2030
Graph 8.7 Global BEV Sales Forecast (2019-2030)
Graph 8.8 OEMs with Largest Market Share in China (2019)
Graph 8.9 OEMs with Largest Market Share in Europe (2019)
Graph 8.10 OEMs with Largest Market Share in US (2019)
Graph 8.11 Growth of Charging Stations

  • Battery companies profiled

A123 Systems
ACCUMOTIVE
Beijing Pride Power
BYD
Tesla
CATL
GS Yuasa
Hefei Guoxuan Hi-tech Power
Hitachi
Hunan Corun New Energy battery
Johnson Matthey
LG Chem
Panasonic
Primearth EV Energy
Samsung SDI
Shenzhen BAK Battery
SK Innovation
Tianjin Lishen
Toshiba

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